Que sera, sera
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que sera, sera
What will be, will be
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| PWH Pharma 2020 |
Demand for effective medicines is rising, as the population ages, new medical needs emerge and the disease burden of the developing world increasingly resembles that of the developed world.
The E7 countries – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey – are also becoming much more prosperous, with real gross domestic product (GDP) projected to triple over the next 13 years.
By 2020, the E7 could account for as much as one-fifth of global sales.
Some of these devices will function on a constant basis, while others will take intermittent measurements.
The surrogate markers they track will determine which mode is most suitable; a device that monitors the heart rate in a patient with a history of cardiac events must be constant, for example, whereas a device that monitors lipid levels in the bloodstream of a patient who has high cholesterol need only be intermittent.
The data a given patient generates will be transmitted to a hub at his or her medical centre, where they will be electronically filtered using intelligent algorithms. If the data fall outside certain predetermined parameters, the patient will be contacted via an automated voice messaging system and asked to come to the medical centre. If the patient does not respond, and the data suggest that he or she has had an acute episode, the system will automatically contact the medical centre with a request for immediate assistance.
As healthcare rises up the political agenda, the industry will have to engage in the debate on how it is funded and play its part in helping to control costs.
The social and economic value of good medicines for chronic diseases will rise with the extension of working life around the globe – and many such medicines already exist, as falling mortality and morbidity rates in the developed world demonstrate. But there will simply not be enough money in the pot to cover the world’s future healthcare needs, unless Pharma can cut its operating costs and margins on these products.
These changes in the marketplace will gradually render the traditional model for selling medicines defunct.
Pharmaceutical companies will replace their large sales teams with key account managers and specialist advisers capable of managing the tender process.
There will be far fewer sales people in markets that are currently saturated with sales staff, like the US – although growing demand will increase the need for key account managers and specialists in developing economies.
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