Especularon sobre 2020: Que será, será...?

Que sera, sera 

Whatever will be, will be 

The future's not ours to see 

Que sera, sera 

What will be, will be 

 

PWH Pharma 2020

Demand for effective medicines is rising, as the population ages, new medical needs emerge and the disease burden of the developing world increasingly resembles that of the developed world.

The E7 countries – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey – are also becoming much more prosperous, with real gross domestic product (GDP) projected to triple over the next 13 years. 
By 2020, the E7 could account for as much as one-fifth of global sales.

 

Anytime, anywhere healthcare By 2020, wearable or embedded devices will be used to monitor patients wherever they are. 
Some of these devices will function on a constant basis, while others will take intermittent measurements. 
The surrogate markers they track will determine which mode is most suitable; a device that monitors the heart rate in a patient with a history of cardiac events must be constant, for example, whereas a device that monitors lipid levels in the bloodstream of a patient who has high cholesterol need only be intermittent. 
The data a given patient generates will be transmitted to a hub at his or her medical centre, where they will be electronically filtered using intelligent algorithms. If the data fall outside certain predetermined parameters, the patient will be contacted via an automated voice messaging system and asked to come to the medical centre. If the patient does not respond, and the data suggest that he or she has had an acute episode, the system will automatically contact the medical centre with a request for immediate assistance.

These trends have several implications for Pharma. 
As healthcare rises up the political agenda, the industry will have to engage in the debate on how it is funded and play its part in helping to control costs. 
The social and economic value of good medicines for chronic diseases will rise with the extension of working life around the globe – and many such medicines already exist, as falling mortality and morbidity rates in the developed world demonstrate. But there will simply not be enough money in the pot to cover the world’s future healthcare needs, unless Pharma can cut its operating costs and margins on these products.

These changes in the marketplace will gradually render the traditional model for selling medicines defunct. 
Pharmaceutical companies will replace their large sales teams with key account managers and specialist advisers capable of managing the tender process. 
There will be far fewer sales people in markets that are currently saturated with sales staff, like the US – although growing demand will increase the need for key account managers and specialists in developing economies.

Automated dispensing By 2020, the fulfilment of prescriptions for most primary-care medications will be fully automated. The doctor will write a prescription, check the reimbursement criteria and download the scrip to the patient’s smart health card or email account, depending on the preferences of the individual patient. The patient will then forward the scrip to an online pharmacy, which will check his or her identity, using a web-based biometric device, and mail the medication to the specified address. Alternatively, the patient will visit the local shopping centre and insert his or her smart card in a vending machine which will automatically authenticate his or her identity and dispense the medication.