martes, 23 de mayo de 2017

EvaluatePharma: World Preview 2016/Outlook 2022 (I)


 Novartis and Roche to compete head to head for the crown of worldwide prescription sales in 2022. Pfizer to challenge them following Medivation acquisition. 
Celgene (+16%) and Shire (+19%) expected to record the fastest sales growth (CAGR) by 2022. 
• Biologics to contribute 50% of the Top 100 product sales by 2022; Roche leads market. 
Roche has the highest valued pipeline (NPV) at $43bn in 2022. 
Gilead is the top value creator based on 2015 sales from recently launched products. 
Tecfidera best commercial launch after hepatitis C’s success stories Harvoni and Sovaldi
Roche’s ocrevus and Sanofi’s dupilumab projected to be the most valuable R&D projects. 
• Worldwide pharmaceutical R&D spend expected to grow by 2.8% (CAGR) to $182bn in 2022. 
Roche overtakes Novartis with biggest spend on pharmacuetical R&D in 2022. 
• New drug approvals in 2015 reach a record 56 NMEs. 
• Oncology is still the largest therapy area by sales (+12.5% CAGR) 2016-22. 
Roche remains the leader of the oncology field but its growth is set to fade due to biosimilars. 
Abbvie still dominates anti-rheumatics market in 2022; high expectations on Lilly’s baricitinib. 
GlaxoSmithKline gains vaccines market leadership following oncology portfolio deal swap with Novartis
Pfizer’s pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar-13 remains the top selling vaccines product. 
Gilead’s lead continues in anti-viral market in 2022 largely due to its HIV portfolio. 
Opdivo and Revlimid to compete for the top selling products in the world in 2022. 
Roche products make up 10% of top 50 selling products in the world in 2022. 
AbbVie’s Humira will continue to be the leading product in the USA in 2022, with sales of $10.7bn. 
Xarelto to emerge as the top selling brand in Europe with €2.5bn sales in 2022.

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