Anyone who thought the industry was over the worst of the patent cliff might want to think again. The $33.5bn in sales at risk from patent expiries in 2015 nearly equal that of the $35.1bn in 2012, the year thought to be the nadir of big pharma innovation, according to an EP Vantage analysis (see tables).
How well drugmakers weather the new patent storm will come largely down to R&D and whether they can meet building expectations for slowly filling pipelines. After a bumper year for drug approvals, the industry needs to hope that success is not fleeting (Friendly FDA ups number of NMEs, January 10, 2013). For companies whose success rate is in doubt, the alternative might be to dismember themselves into cash-generating established-products entities and more speculative drug-discovery units, as has happened with Abbott Laboratories and might be on the horizon for Pfizer.
Absorbing the blow
This analysis includes only sales in the US, where the impact of patent expiry can be seen most clearly. It shows the previous year’s revenues at risk from patent expiry, so for 2015 the table lists the sales from 2014, the last full year unaffected by generic erosion,
What probably set 2012 apart was the number of blockbusters coming off patent and the amount of sales ascribed to them – nine products that exceeded $1bn or more in US sales, seven of which were in the $2bn-and-up club (Patent storm hits in 2012, February 8, 2012). To be sure, 2012 was unprecedented in that worldwide prescription sales were actually set to decline from $723.5bn in 2011 to $711.6bn, according to EvaluatePharma forecasts, as generics eroded top lines. (Más)
>$4bio: Lantus (Sanofi)
>$2bio: Ability (Otsuka), Rituxan (Roche), Neulasta (Amgen), Copaxone (Teva), Gleevec (Novartis)
>$1bio: Namenda (Forest), Lovaza (GSK), Treanda (Teva), Combivent (B.Ingelheim)
Sanofi predicts end of patent cliff in 2013
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