The Forecasting Mantra

Desarrollado por Alec Finney y Martin Joseph de Rivershill Consulting, aplicando la experiencia de décadas de trabajo en la industria farmacéutica (Astra Zeneca UK).


"The Forecasting Mantra describes a holistic view of business forecasting which, coupled with mature behaviors, enables the delivery of high-quality forecasts and leads to improvements in target setting, risk management, and investment decisions, all of which improve bottom-line performance."


Trata de ser un modelo de respuesta a las habituales inquietudes:

“This is the sales number we need next year.”
“We used our new and expensive forecasting model/software for this forecast and this is the output.”
“Fine, but we need 20% more sales to meet our business targets.” (Understand the difference between forecasts and plans.)
“I want to see a single-number forecast reconciled with the budget and supply-chain forecasts.” (Different plans meet different business purposes and cannot be reconciled.)
“That’s two months in a row we’ve been behind the phased budget. What are you going to do about it?”
(Monitor against assumptions – not just the numbers.)
“I didn’t agree with that forecasting assumption to start with!” (Taking people along with you on the forecasting journey is vital.)
“How do you get from those assumptions to these numbers? Tell me in a way I can understand….” (Tell me the story of this forecast – the thinking behind the numbers.)
“How confident are you in that forecast – what risks do we face?” (Give me the MLF, confidence intervals, and scenarios.)