martes, 30 de agosto de 2016

Todos "encontraban" motivación por...Medivation (I)...pero Pfizer se adelántó.


Todos "encuentran" motivación por...Medivation

Pero llegó Pfizer y...

It's game-on time for Pfizer finally. 

On Monday, the giant pharma surprised the market by speeding past Sanofi  to nab cancer biotech Medivation Inc.  for $14 billion in cash. 

But is this buyout good news for Pfizer's investors, with Pfizer's recent history of buyouts dominated by two big setbacks? The U.S. drugmaker walked away from a $160 billion merger with Allergan when new U.S. Treasury rules blocked the deal's benefits. And that came just two years after Pfizer flopped in a $118 billion bid to buy AstraZeneca. After two failed attempts at megamergers, shareholders would be justified in asking whether the giant pharma has a clue what it's doing anymore when it comes to acquisitions. 

Despite the high price of the Medivation deal, I think Pfizer does know what it's doing here. Let's look closer at what the company got with this deal and how it could pay off for investors. 

Pfizer leapfrogs ahead in oncology 

Pfizer's biggest growth driver has rapidly become breast cancer drug Ibrance. With the Medivation acquisition, Pfizer will now be in the enviable position of owning two of the top 8 best-selling oncology drugs on the market, as determined by projected 2021 sales. 

(Check out the visuals below to see how well Pfizer has now positioned itself in oncology.)

As the pie graph shows, Pfizer will own over 17% of the top-selling cancer drugs after the Medivation deal closes. And Pfizer's slice of this very high-margin pie may end up even bigger, because Xtandi could easily blow through sales estimates of $4.75 billion. (...)


World’s Top Ten Cancer Drugs by 2020

(...) Read told analysts that the Medivation deal was mainly driven by a belief in the future potential of Xtandi
"The product is just at the beginning of its growth cycle," he said, pointing out that Xtandi is typically prescribed by oncologists. 
Assuming the drug is approved for earlier use in prostate cancer, it would also be prescribed by urologists. If Read is right that Medivation is just getting started, the steep premium to scoop it up now will end up looking wise. 

Beefing up branded drugs for a possible split 

Pfizer's management has previously said it may split up the company by the end of the year, but it knows it needs to beef up its branded drug segment before the split. 

Pfizer is making a big push into oncology for several reasons. Discoveries in immunology and genetics are allowing for the development of much more effective drugs, many of which sell for well over $100,000 a year. The meds have also proven resistant to cost-cutting measures. Since cancer can be a rapidly fatal disease, and patients have few options, payers usually cough up. 

Pfizer has not been wildly successful with its cancer efforts until recently. But it now has a big hit with Ibrance, and the buyout of Medivation netted it another hit with Xtandi

Investors appear to like the giant pharma's recent deals, which include the buyout of Anacor Pharmaceuticals. Pfizer's stock is up 8% from the beginning of the year, which outpaces all the major U.S. trading indexes. The move up may continue, as before the ink was dry on the Medivation deal, Pfizer announced it had acquired part of AstraZeneca's antibiotics business for approximately $1.6 billion. The latest deal involves three approved meds and two more in clinical trials. 

All of which leads to a very interesting question: 
What will Pfizer buy next?

Ver también:
Pfizer potencia el área de inmuno oncología con la compra de Medivation

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