How Much Does it Cost to Develop a Drug? What do you Think? / Ed Silverman en TWSJ

For years, there has been intense debate over what it costs to develop a new drug. And tomorrow, one think tank hopes to put the issue to rest. Of course, this remains to be seen. 

Drug makers maintain the true cost should reflect the investment in not only the hits, but the misses. In other words, the pharmaceutical industry says the expense needed to successfully concoct any one medicine should incorporate the costs of the many failures that occur along the way. 

Conversely, consumer advocates and some academics, among others, regularly contest industry estimates, which have been rising over the years. As they see it, the numbers proffered by drug makers mask a combination of irrelevant and overstated expenses. And these estimates, they go on to argue, are unfairly used to justify rising prices. 

For these reasons, arguments are likely to continue. Nonetheless, the Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development on Tuesday will release a report that will take yet another stab at determining the true cost. The last time the think tank offered an estimate was in 2003, when it calculated the cost to develop a drug at $802 million. The findings were published in the Journal of Health Economics.

Ver:

FORBES: El "sorprendente" costo de la invención de nuevos medicamentos.

So what might the latest number from Tufts look like? Already, the betting has begun. A forum run by one consumer advocacy group is asking participants to guess and, so far, their answers have ranged from about $1.1 billion to $2.5 billion. 

Since 2003, various estimates have suggested the cost has increased significantly. Two years ago, for instance, the cost was estimated at $1.5 billion by the Office of Health Economics, a consulting firm that received an unrestricted grant from AstraZeneca to compile its report. The Tufts analysis, however, remains widely cited as a benchmark. How does the Tufts Center calculate the cost? The non-profit think tank relies on data supplied, in part, by the pharmaceutical industry as well as other sources. For those who are interested, the methodology will be released along with the bottom-line calculations. We should note, by the way, that the Tufts Center is funded, in part, by the pharmaceutical industry. 

So what do you think the number will be? No, there is no prize for the person who guesses correctly, but this is as good a time as any to think it over.n (Ver)

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Desmitificando el costo de desarrollo de un nuevo medicamento.