IMS prognosis 2011

The value of the global pharmaceutical market is expected to grow 5-7 percent in 2011, to US$880 billion, compared with a 4-5 percent pace this year, according to IMS Health. The forecast, included in the latest release of IMS Market Prognosis™, is the leading annual industry indicator of market dynamics and therapy performance.

"While the overall market will appear to rebound somewhat in 2011, the underlying constraints to growth in developed markets are stronger than ever - including the impact of major patent expiries and payer mechanisms to limit drug spending," said IMS Senior Vice President Murray Aitken. "We expect the pharmerging markets to continue their rapid expansion next year and remain strong sources of growth, and also see the potential for several significant innovative treatment options that are becoming available for patients in areas that include metastatic melanoma, multiple sclerosis and acute coronary syndrome."

IMS identifies the following key market dynamics:

· The 17 pharmerging countries are forecast to grow at a 15-17 percent rate in 2011. China, 25-27 percent , Japan grow 5-7 percent . Five major European markets (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the U.K.) will grow at a 1-3 percent . U.S. 3-5 percent

· In 2011, products with sales of more than $30 billion face the prospect of generic competition. In the U.S. alone, Lipitor®, Plavix®, Zyprexa® and Levaquin®

· Broad measures applied to reduce growth in drug budgets.

· Therapy area growth dynamics driven by innovation cycle and areas of unmet need. Innovative treatment options for stroke prevention, melanoma, multiple sclerosis, breast cancer and hepatitis C.