Pfizer
Yes, even the granddaddy of all pharmaceutical names is at risk from patent expirations, albeit to a lesser degree than the other three companies, thanks to its diverse drug portfolio.
Pfizer is facing what will amount to six patent expirations within the next three years. All you have to do is look at the company's hypertension treatment Norvasc to see the effects that exclusivity can have on a drug. Norvasc used to be a $4 billion-a-year drug. Last year, its sales fell by 24% and have been more than halved in the three years since it came off patent.
Patent expirations around the corner include erectile-dysfunction blockbuster Viagra in 2012, which accounted for $1.9 billion in sales last year, and osteoarthritis drug Celebrex in 2014, with more than $2.3 billion in sales. More importantly, this year Pfizer is set to lose its patent on the best-selling drug in the world, Lipitor, as well as on Xalatan, a treatment for glaucoma that brought in $1.7 billion in 2010. Geodon and Detrol are the other two set to come off patent in 2012.
Including Lipitor, which accounts for 15% of Pfizer's total sales, the company has approximately $18 billion of its $67.9 billion in revenue at risk. However, Pfizer has countless partnerships -- most notably with Amgen to market Enbrel -- and 118 total drugs currently in its pipeline, 34 of which are either in or through phase 3 testing. It should be able to weather the storm for the time being, but I'd place the company on a short leash, because it doesn't take much for a pharmaceutical company to get complacent and suddenly see its pipeline begin to dwindle.
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