The chart above shows the combined fifth-year sales for all products launched each year over the last decade, for which companies and analysts provide data. From 2009 the data include increasing proportions of consensus forecasts.
It also shows that, despite the growing importance of biologics and the industry’s increasing focus on the technology, small molecules still dominate new medicines.
However, if these forecasts prove accurate 2014 could be one of the best years for launches of biological products. If the PD-1 antibodies make it, it will look even better.
The graph reveals how over the past 10 years the value of new biologic launches has been trending upwards. Launches of conventional pharma products, on the other hand, show bigger oscillations but reveal no trend towards greater sales, the successful class of 2013 notwithstanding.
These graphs also reveal how dependent the industry is on launching giant new products to restore faith in the sector’s R&D productivity. The dip in the value of conventional products launched from 2006 to 2010 helped stoke concerns about the industry’s ability to invent substantial new drugs and coincided with worries over the “patent cliff”. This productivity image problem was not helped by a string of late-stage disappointments and delays that befell a number of products pegged as future blockbusters. (Más)