Evaluate Pharma: World Outlook 2024 (I)

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Analysis Highlights 

•  Prescription drug sales expected to reach $1.2trn in 2024, due to novel therapies addressing key unmet needs, as well as increasing access to medicines globally. Payer scrutiny and sales losses from genericization and biosimilars will act as brakes on growth 


•  Novartis will be the leading prescription drug company in 2024 with sales of $53.2bn, ahead of Pfizer and Roche, both of whom are closely competing for the second spot

Analysis Highlights

•  Should Takeda complete its intended acquisition of Shire and forecast projections for a combined portfolio hold, the combined entity would be the 9th largest pharmaceutical company based on 2024 sales 


•  Vertex’s triple combination, VX-659 + tezacaftor + ivacaftor, is anticipated to be the most valuable project in the pharmaceutical industry pipeline with $13,070m NPV 


•  R&D spend is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 3.1% to 2024 lower than the CAGR of 3.6% between 2010 and 2017, signalling expectations that companies will be improving R&D efficiencies or less revenue will be directed towards replenishing pipelines 


•  For the top 20 pharma companies, organic value creation focused on core therapeutic areas is forecast to deliver greatest value gain over 2018 and 2024 with cumulative sales of $324bn 


•  Humira remains the top selling drug in 2024, despite a CAGR of -3% over the next 7 years, due to adalimumab biosimilar entry in the USA being delayed to 2023